Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis

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Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

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Author by : Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 328
Isbn : 1118938895
Identifier : 9781118938898
Release : 2015-02-23
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr. and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (da), breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. the book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. highlighting topics not conventionally found in da textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic da paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. the book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. in addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis also includes: an emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. the book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Risk Assessment and Decision Making in Business and Industry A Practical Guide, Second Edition

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Author by : Glenn Koller
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 352
Isbn : 1420035053
Identifier : 9781420035056
Release : 2005-03-30
Publisher by : CRC Press
Category : Mathematics
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Description : Read Now Risk Assessment And Decision Making In Business And Industry by Glenn Koller and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. building upon the technical and organizational groundwork presented in the first edition, risk assessment and decision making in business and industry: a practical guide, second edition addresses the many aspects of risk/uncertainty (r/u) process implementation. this comprehensive volume covers four broad aspects of r/u: general concepts, implementation processes, technical aspects, and examples of application. each section provides practical guidance, combining technical information with advice on how to implement r/u techniques and processes in real-world corporate environments. following an examination of general principles involved in quantitatively assessing risks and their impact on value, the book describes the two main probabilistic measures of project value - expected value of success (evs) and the expected value for the portfolio (evp). the text clearly demonstrates how these metrics are used in individual-project and portfolio management. by presenting concepts in layman's terms and fully integrating advice related to technical and human characteristics of r/u-related corporate life, this book serves as a complete primer for professionals in any business environment. what's new in the second edition: provides guidance for implementation of r/u processes in modern corporations offers a crucial breakthrough by defining the terms "risk" and "uncertainty" in ways that can be applied in all aspects of science and business explores real-world impediments to process change and implementation addresses r/u from a corporate decision-maker's perspective, detailing how to employ r/u to set budgets, manage portfolios, value investments, and execute other critical tasks

Risk and Contingency Management: Breakthroughs in Research and Practice Breakthroughs in Research and Practice

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Author by : Management Association, Information Resources
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 472
Isbn : 1522539336
Identifier : 9781522539339
Release : 2017-12-01
Publisher by : IGI Global
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Risk And Contingency Management Breakthroughs In Research And Practice by Management Association, Information Resources and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. in business, mistakes and errors will inevitably occur. as such, organizations must be constantly alert and ready to meet challenges head-on. risk and contingency management: breakthroughs in research and practice is a comprehensive reference source for the latest scholarly material on trends and techniques for the prediction and evaluation of financial risks and how to diminish their effect. highlighting a range of pertinent topics such as project management, risk auditing and reporting, and resource management, this multi-volume book is ideally designed for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in risk and contingency management.

Decision Science and Social Risk Management A Comparative Evaluation of Cost-Benefit Analysis, Decision Analysis, and Other Formal Decision-Aiding Approaches

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Author by : M.W Merkhofer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 330
Isbn : 9400946988
Identifier : 9789400946989
Release : 2012-12-06
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now Decision Science And Social Risk Management by M.W Merkhofer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. economists, decision analysts, management scientists, and others have long argued that government should take a more scientific approach to decision making. pointing to various theories for prescribing and rational izing choices, they have maintained that social goals could be achieved more effectively and at lower costs if government decisions were routinely subjected to analysis. now, government policy makers are putting decision science to the test. recent government actions encourage and in some cases require government decisions to be evaluated using formally defined principles 01' rationality. will decision science pass tbis test? the answer depends on whether analysts can quickly and successfully translate their theories into practical approaches and whether these approaches promote the solution of the complex, highly uncertain, and politically sensitive problems that are of greatest concern to government decision makers. the future of decision science, perhaps even the nation's well-being, depends on the outcome. a major difficulty for the analysts who are being called upon by government to apply decision-aiding approaches is that decision science has not yet evolved a universally accepted methodology for analyzing social decisions involving risk. numerous approaches have been proposed, including variations of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, and applied social welfare theory. each of these, however, has its limitations and deficiencies and none has a proven track record for application to govern ment decisions involving risk. cost-benefit approaches have been exten sively applied by the government, but most applications have been for decisions that were largely risk-free.

Intelligent Systems and Decision Making for Risk Analysis and Crisis Response Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response, Istanbul, Turkey, 27-29 August 2013

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Author by : Chongfu Huang
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 950
Isbn : 0203771478
Identifier : 9780203771471
Release : 2013-07-25
Publisher by : CRC Press
Category : Computers
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Description : Read Now Intelligent Systems And Decision Making For Risk Analysis And Crisis Response by Chongfu Huang and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. in this present internet age, risk analysis and crisis response based on information will make up a digital world full of possibilities and improvements to people’s daily life and capabilities. these services will be supported by more intelligent systems and more effective decisionmaking. this book contains all the papers presented at the 4th international conference on risk analysis and crisis response, august 27-29, 2013, istanbul, turkey. the theme was intelligent systems and decision making for risk analysis and crisis response. the risk issues in the papers cluster around the following topics: natural disasters, finance risks, food and feed safety, catastrophic accidents, critical infrastructure, global climate change, project management, supply chains, public health, threats to social safety, energy and environment. this volume will be of interest to all professionals and academics in the field of risk analysis, crisis response, intelligent systems and decision-making, as well as related fields of enquiry.

Learning from Catastrophes Strategies for Reaction and Response

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Author by : Howard Kunreuther
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 352
Isbn : 9780137067244
Identifier : 0137067240
Release : 2009-11-16
Publisher by : Pearson Prentice Hall
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Learning From Catastrophes by Howard Kunreuther and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. events ranging from hurricane katrina to the global economic crisis have taught businesspeople an unforgettable lesson: if you don’t plan for “extreme risk,” you endanger your organization’s very survival. but how can you plan for events that go far beyond anything that occurs in normal day-to-day business? in learning from catastrophes, two renowned experts present the first comprehensive strategic framework for assessing, responding to, and managing extreme risk. howard kunreuther and michael useem build on their own breakthrough work on mitigating natural disasters, extending it to the challenges faced by real-world enterprises. along with the contributions of leading experts in risk management, heuristics, and disaster recovery, they identify the behavioral biases and faulty heuristics that mislead decision makers about the likelihood of catastrophe. they go on to identify the hidden links associated with extreme risks, and present techniques for systematically building greater resilience into the organization. the global best-seller the black swan told executives that “once in a lifetime” events are far more common and dangerous than they ever realized. learning from catastropheshows them exactly what to do about it.

Beyond HR The New Science of Human Capital

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Author by : John W. Boudreau
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 258
Isbn : 1422148130
Identifier : 9781422148136
Release : 2007-06-19
Publisher by : Harvard Business Press
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Beyond Hr by John W. Boudreau and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. is your talent strategy a unique competitive advantage? as competition for top talent increases, companies must recognize that decisions about talent and its organization can have a significant strategic impact. beyond hr shows how organizations can uncover distinctive talent contributions, strategically differentiate their hr practices and metrics, and more optimally allocate talent to create value. illustrations from companies such as disney, boeing, and corning describe a new decision science called talentship, that reveals opportunities by identifying strategy pivot points and the optimal talent and organization decisions that address them. a unique framework helps readers identify their own distinctive strategic pivot points and connect them to talent decisions, showing how today’s “hr” can evolve to fulfill its potential as a source of strategic advantage.

International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management

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Author by : no defined
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn :
Identifier : STANFORD:36105131886678
Release : 2007
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Risk management
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The Risks of Prescription Drugs

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Author by : Donald Light
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 167
Isbn : 0231146922
Identifier : 9780231146920
Release : 2010
Publisher by : Columbia University Press
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now The Risks Of Prescription Drugs by Donald Light and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. raises key questions about topics in the pharmaceutical industry, including how the risks of side effects are weighed, if privatization of that risk is prudent, and the high prices for drugs.

Understanding Risk Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society

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Author by : National Research Council
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 264
Isbn : 0309133246
Identifier : 9780309133241
Release : 1996-06-05
Publisher by : National Academies Press
Category : Political Science
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Description : Read Now Understanding Risk by National Research Council and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. understanding risk addresses a central dilemma of risk decisionmaking in a democracy: detailed scientific and technical information is essential for making decisions, but the people who make and live with those decisions are not scientists. the key task of risk characterization is to provide needed and appropriate information to decisionmakers and the public. this important new volume illustrates that making risks understandable to the public involves much more than translating scientific knowledge. the volume also draws conclusions about what society should expect from risk characterization and offers clear guidelines and principles for informing the wide variety of risk decisions that face our increasingly technological society. understanding risk frames fundamental questions about what risk characterization means. reviews traditional definitions and explores new conceptual and practical approaches. explores how risk characterization should inform decisionmakers and the public. looks at risk characterization in the context of the entire decisionmaking process. understanding risk discusses how risk characterization has fallen short in many recent controversial decisions. throughout the text, examples and case studies--such as planning for the long-term ecological health of the everglades or deciding on the operation of a waste incinerator--bring key concepts to life. understanding risk will be important to anyone involved in risk issues: federal, state, and local policymakers and regulators; risk managers; scientists; industrialists; researchers; and concerned individuals.

Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis

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Author by : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 588
Isbn : 3319782428
Identifier : 9783319782423
Release : 2018-06-19
Publisher by : Springer
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. this book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. it discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. the book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.the book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the causal analytics toolkit (cat) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. these chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

The Rush to Policy Using Analytic Techniques in Public Sector Decision Making

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Author by : Peter William House
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 219
Isbn : 9781412831055
Identifier : 1412831059
Release :
Publisher by : Transaction Publishers
Category : Political Science
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Description : Read Now The Rush To Policy by Peter William House and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. rush to policy explores the appropriate role of technical analysis in policy formulation. the authors ask when and how the use of sophisticated analytic techniques in decision-making benefits the nation. they argues that these techniques are too often used in situations where they may not be needed or understood by the decision maker, where they may not be to answer the questions raised but are nonetheless required by law. house and shull provide an excellent empirical base for describing the impact of politics on policies, policy analysis, and policy analysts. they examine cost-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and decision analysis and assess their ability to substitute for the current decision-making process in the public sector. they examine the political basis of public sector decision-making, how individuals and organizations make decisions, and the ways decisions are made in the federal sector. also, they discuss the mandate to use these methods in the policy formulation process. the book is written by two practicing federal policy analysts who, in a decade of service as policy researchers, developed sophisticated quantitative analytic and decision-making techniques. they then spent several years trying to use them in the real world. success and failures are described in illuminating detail, providing insight not commonly found in such critiques. the authors delineate the interaction of politics and technical issues. their book describes policy analysis as it is, not how it ought to be. peter w. house is the director of policy research and analysis at the national science foundation. he is the author of ten books on multidisciplinary science and technology policy research and analyses in government, private, and university sectors, including the art of public policy analysis and with roger d. shull, regulatory reform: politics and the environment and regulations and science: management of research on demand. roger d. shull is a senior analyst at the division of policy research and analysis, national science foundation.