Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis

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Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis

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Author by : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 588
Isbn : 3319782428
Identifier : 9783319782423
Release : 2018-06-19
Publisher by : Springer
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Causal Analytics For Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. this book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. it discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. the book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.the book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the causal analytics toolkit (cat) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. these chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

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Author by : Louis A. Cox
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 328
Isbn : 1118217160
Identifier : 9781118217160
Release : 2015-03-30
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Breakthroughs In Decision Science And Risk Analysis by Louis A. Cox and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis focusing on recent advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (da), breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. the book explains these new methods and important applications in an easily accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science. emphasizing topics not traditionally found in da literature, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science and includes developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic da paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. the book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges, including online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to provide more-or-less plausible explanations for available data and recommended actions. in addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis also includes: an emphasis on new approaches rather than classical and traditional ideas discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management innovative methods for deciding what to do when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence breakthroughs in decision science and risk analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. the book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management. louis anthony (tony) cox, jr. phd, is chief sciences officer of nexthealth technologies, a denver-based health care advanced analytics software company and president of cox associates, inc., a denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk assessment, risk analysis, causal modeling, and operations research. dr. cox is also clinical professor of biostatistics and informatics at the university of colorado at denver, a member of the national academy of engineering, and editor-in-chief of risk analysis: an international journal.

Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

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Author by : Norman Fenton
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 524
Isbn : 1439809119
Identifier : 9781439809112
Release : 2012-11-07
Publisher by : CRC Press
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis With Bayesian Networks by Norman Fenton and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. although many bayesian network (bn) applications are now in everyday use, bns have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, risk assessment and decision analysis with bayesian networks explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights and better decision making. provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic bayesian network models supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, and more introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed the book first establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using bn models, then goes into the detailed applications. the underlying bn algorithms appear in appendices rather than the main text since there is no need to understand them to build and use bn models. keeping the body of the text free of intimidating mathematics, the book provides pragmatic advice about model building to ensure models are built efficiently. a dedicated website, www.bayesianrisk.com, contains executable versions of all of the models described, exercises and worked solutions for all chapters, powerpoint slides, numerous other resources, and a free downloadable copy of the agenarisk software.

Research Methods in Applied Behavior Analysis

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Author by : Jon S. Bailey
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 268
Isbn : 9780761925569
Identifier : 0761925562
Release : 2002-02-13
Publisher by : SAGE
Category : Medical
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Description : Read Now Research Methods In Applied Behavior Analysis by Jon S. Bailey and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this very practical, `how-to′ text provides the beginning researcher with the basics of applied behaviour analysis research methods. the text covers all the elements of single-subject research design and provides practical information for designing, implementing and evaluating studies.

Applied Data Analytic Techniques For Turning Points Research

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Author by : Patricia Cohen
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 256
Isbn : 113691076X
Identifier : 9781136910760
Release : 2012-10-12
Publisher by : Routledge
Category : Psychology
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Description : Read Now Applied Data Analytic Techniques For Turning Points Research by Patricia Cohen and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this innovative volume demonstrates the use of a range of statistical approaches that examine "turning points" (a change in direction, magnitude, or meaning) in real data. analytic techniques are illustrated with real longitudinal data from a variety of fields. as such the book will appeal to a variety of researchers including: developmental researchers interested in identifying factors precipitating turning points at various life stages. medical or substance abuse researchers looking for turning points in disease or recovery. social researchers interested in estimating the effects of life experiences on subsequent behavioral changes. interpersonal behavior researchers looking to identify turning points in relationships. brain researchers needing to discriminate the onset of an experimentally produced process in a participant. the book opens with the goals and theoretical considerations in defining turning points. an overview of the methods presented in subsequent chapters is then provided. chapter goals include discriminating "local" from long-term effects, identifying variables altering the connection between trajectories at different life stages, locating non-normative turning points, coping with practical distributional problems in trajectory analyses, and changes in the meaning and connections between variables in the transition to adulthood. from an applied perspective, the book explores such topics as antisocial/aggressive trajectories at different life stages, the impact of imprisonment on criminal behavior, family contact trajectories in the transition to adulthood, sustained effects of substance abuse, alternative models of bereavement, and identifying brain changes associated with the onset of a new brain process. ideal for advanced students and researchers interested in identifying significant change in data in a variety of fields including psychology, medicine, education, political science, criminology, and sociology.

Author by : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 343
Isbn :
Identifier : MINN:31951D03773094Y
Release : 2014
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Environmental sciences
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Description : Read Now Ensuring Open Science At Epa by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account.

Guidelines for carcinogen risk assessment

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Author by : no defined
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn : 1428904565
Identifier : 9781428904569
Release :
Publisher by : DIANE Publishing
Category :
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Science and Decisions Advancing Risk Assessment

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Author by : National Research Council
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 422
Isbn : 9780309120463
Identifier : 0309120462
Release : 2009-03-24
Publisher by : National Academies Press
Category : Political Science
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Description : Read Now Science And Decisions by National Research Council and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. it has been instrumental to the mission of the u.s. environmental protection agency (epa) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. however, risk assessment is at a crossroads. despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. science and decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. this book is a complement to the widely used 1983 national academies book, risk assessment in the federal government (also known as the red book). the earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. the new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

New Risks: Issues and Management

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Author by : Louis A. Cox
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 716
Isbn : 9780306435379
Identifier : 0306435373
Release : 1990-09-30
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Medical
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Description : Read Now New Risks Issues And Management by Louis A. Cox and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this volume contains the proceedings of the 1986 annual meeting and conference of the society for risk analysis. it provides a detailed view of both mature disciplines and emerging areas within the fields of health, safety, and environmental risk analysis as they existed in 1986. in selecting and organizing topics for this conference, we sought both (i) to identify and include new ideas and application areas that would be of lasting interest to risk analysts and to users of risk analysis results, and (ii) to include innovative methods and applications in established areas of risk analysis. in the three years since the conference, many of the topics presented there for the first time to a broad risk analysis audience have become well developed-and sometimes hotly debated-areas of applied risk research. several, such as the public health hazards from indoor air pollutants, radon in the home, high-voltage electric fields, and the aids epidemic, have been the subjects of headlines since 1986. older areas, such as hazardous waste site ranking and remediation, air emissions dispersion modeling and exposure assessment, transportation safety, seismic and nuclear risk assessment, and occupational safety in the chemical industry, have continued to receive new treatments and to benefit from advances in quantitative risk assessment methods, as documented in the theoretical and methodological papers in this volume. a theme of the meeting was the importance of new technologies and the new and uncertain risks that they create.

Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation A Dynamic Systems Approach

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Author by : Prince Boateng
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 288
Isbn : 178635831X
Identifier : 9781786358318
Release : 2017-04-28
Publisher by : Emerald Group Publishing
Category : Construction projects
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Description : Read Now Megaproject Risk Analysis And Simulation by Prince Boateng and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. 6.4. practical guide -- 6.5. limitations and further research -- 6.5.1. limitations -- 6.5.2. further research -- references -- appendices -- appendix a: model validation -- a.1. introduction -- a.2. philosophical aspects of model validity -- a.3. model validation process -- a.4. methods for testing and validating the integrated system models -- a.5. importance of the integrated system model objective -- a.6. validating the model structure -- a.7. tests of suitability -- a.7.1. structure verification -- a.7.2. parameter verification -- a.7.3. boundary adequacy -- a.7.4. dimensional consistency -- a.7.5. extreme conditions -- a.8. validating the model behaviour -- a.8.1. behaviour reproduction test -- a.8.2. sensitivity analysis -- a.8.3. numerical sensitivity analysis -- a.8.4. behaviour mode sensitivity analysis -- a.9. other tests -- a.9.1. policy analysis, design and improvement -- a.9.2. feedback approach -- a.9.3. disaggregation approach -- a.9.4. simulation approach -- a.9.5. manageable model size -- a.10. policy implementation -- a.11. summary -- appendix b: structured interview questionnaire and participants -- appendix c: respondent's mean scores of importance -- index

Improving Risk Analysis

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Author by : Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 386
Isbn : 1461460581
Identifier : 9781461460589
Release : 2013-02-03
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Improving Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox Jr. and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. improving risk analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. the constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them. the book is divided into three parts. parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. part 2 discusses social decisions. part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution. "tony cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: how to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. the constructive methods in improving risk analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. better risk management is possible and practicable; improving risk analysis explains how." elisabeth pate-cornell, stanford university "improving risk analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. tony cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. this much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses." seth guikema, johns hopkins university "tony cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. improving risk analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world." susan e. dudley, george washington university

Quality Control and Applied Statistics

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Author by : no defined
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn :
Identifier : UOM:39076006957901
Release : 1970
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Operations research
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