Exploratory Modeling And Analysis A Promising Method To Deal With Deep Uncertainty

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Exploratory Modeling and Analysis A Promising Method to Deal with Deep Uncertainty

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Author by : Buyung Agusdinata
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 286
Isbn :
Identifier : NWU:35556038314159
Release : 2008
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Decision making
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Public Policy Analysis New Developments

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Author by : Wil A. H. Thissen
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 286
Isbn : 1461446023
Identifier : 9781461446026
Release : 2012-10-05
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Social Science
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Description : Read Now Public Policy Analysis by Wil A. H. Thissen and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. while successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and political dimensions of most policy processes. in recent decades, increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and approaches – for example, argumentative approaches, participative policy analysis, and negotiation support. as a result, the field has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. public policy analysis: new developments acknowledges the variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to policy analysis. it provides an overview and typology of different types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. thereby, it provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. by broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. while the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the policy actors. the book has as its major objective to describe the state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy analysis. it is divided into two parts. part i explores and structures policy analysis developments, the development and description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. part ii focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in part i.

System of System Failures

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Author by : Takafumi Nakamura
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 124
Isbn : 1789230462
Identifier : 9781789230468
Release : 2018-05-09
Publisher by : BoD – Books on Demand
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now System Of System Failures by Takafumi Nakamura and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book provides the application of praxises in the field of engineering safety by learning from previous system failures. and it addresses the most recent developments in the theoretical and practical aspects of these important fields, which, due to their special nature, bring together in a systematic way, many disciplines of engineering, from the traditional to the most technologically advanced. the authors of these chapters are involved in using the system thinking and system engineering approaches at the scale of increased complexity and advanced computational solutions to such systems. the chapters cover the areas such as failure assessment in aeronautical engineering, seismic resistance of offshore pipeline engineering, electrical engineering, critical infrastructure failure, and system of system theory.

Contemporary Issues in Systems Science and Engineering

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Author by : MengChu Zhou
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 888
Isbn : 1118271866
Identifier : 9781118271865
Release : 2015-04-20
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now Contemporary Issues In Systems Science And Engineering by MengChu Zhou and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. "this represents the most comprehensive systems engineering book, allowing systems engineers to evaluate increasingly complex problems and challenges through actual discrete events in order to reach the most effective solution. with world renowned systems engineers contributing, the book features 27 chapters, each on a different discrete event, with accompanying discussions and conclusions. the topics range from discrete event systems, distributed intelligent systems, grey systems, and enterprise information systems, to conflict resolution, robotics and intelligent sensing, systems biology, and system of systems approaches"--

Complex Systems Design & Management Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management CSDM 2011

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Author by : Omar Hammami
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 360
Isbn : 3642252036
Identifier : 9783642252037
Release : 2012-01-12
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now Complex Systems Design Management by Omar Hammami and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book contains all refereed papers that were accepted to the second edition of the « complex systems design & management » (csdm 2011) international conference that took place in paris (france) from december 7 to december 9, 2011. (website: http://www.csdm2011.csdm.fr/). these proceedings cover the most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences & practices from an industrial and academic perspective, including the main industrial domains (transport, defense & security, electronics, energy & environment, e-services), scientific & technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture& engineering, systems metrics & quality, systemic tools) and system types (transportation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of systems, artificial ecosystems). the csdm 2011 conference is organized under the guidance of the cesames non-profit organization (http://www.cesames.net/).

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

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Author by : Robert J. Lempert
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 208
Isbn : 0833034855
Identifier : 9780833034854
Release : 2003-07-18
Publisher by : Rand Corporation
Category : Transportation
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Description : Read Now Shaping The Next One Hundred Years by Robert J. Lempert and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. a sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. the checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the limits to growth study to claims about the "new economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. however, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. new analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. this report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. the authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (ltpa). robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. reframing the question "what will the long-term future bring?" as "how can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world ltpa and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

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Author by : Paul K. Davis
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 77
Isbn : 0833040391
Identifier : 9780833040398
Release : 2007
Publisher by : Rand Corporation
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking by Paul K. Davis and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. some investment priorities are also recommended.

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Centennial Edition

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Author by : Saul I. Gass
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 917
Isbn : 079237827X
Identifier : 9780792378273
Release : 2001
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Computers
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Description : Read Now Encyclopedia Of Operations Research And Management Science by Saul I. Gass and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. audience: anyone concerned with the science, techniques and ideas of how decisions are made."--book jacket.

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy

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Author by : Cristiano Cagnin
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 170
Isbn : 3540688110
Identifier : 9783540688112
Release : 2008-07-29
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Science
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Description : Read Now Future Oriented Technology Analysis by Cristiano Cagnin and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. the application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. in that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (fta) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. fta addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. it is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. this book charts the development of fta and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. it draws on papers addressing the application of fta around the globe which were presented at the second international seville seminar in september 2006. the insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

The Transport System and Transport Policy An Introduction

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Author by : Bert van Wee
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 399
Isbn : 0857936905
Identifier : 9780857936905
Release : 2013
Publisher by : Edward Elgar Publishing
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now The Transport System And Transport Policy by Bert van Wee and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. Ôthis very interesting book provides an excellent multi-disciplinary introduction into the functioning of transport systems and the interaction with their environments.Õ Ð erik verhoef, vu university amsterdam, the netherlands Ôthe editors of this important book have clearly identified that few writings on transport treat the transport system as a whole. implicit in this is a need for a genuinely multidisciplinary approach. an impressive list of contributors ensures that the book draws on the latest research whilst providing new insights into some of the key challenges facing transport students and researchers, transport providers and policy makers.Õ Ð roger vickerman, university of kent, uk Ôsince ancient times transportation has brought our world together. but the need for connectivity and accessibility in a spatially differentiated world has prompted the emergence of very complex transportation systems. this book offers a fresh and operational contribution to a better understanding of the complexity and manageability of a mobile world, by addressing in a balanced way both conceptual and applied or policy aspects of modern transportation systems.Õ Ð peter nijkamp, free university of amsterdam, the netherlands transport impacts on people and businesses in many different ways, and presents some of the key problems that decision-makers need to address. this comprehensive textbook introduces the transport system in a holistic and multidisciplinary way, bringing together the myriad components of transport. this textbook is written for an international readership of undergraduate and postgraduate students in transport and related subjects, as well as for professionals and policy decision-makers across both public and private sectors. key features include: ¥ discussion of the importance of transport accessibility and the impacts of transport on the environment and safety ¥ policy issues relating to all of the discussed issues and prescribed future options. ¥ transport evaluation methods and modelling approaches. ¥ examples to highlight the linkages between components of the transport system Ð for example infrastructures, land-use, vehicle technologies Ð and the relevance of these linkages for decision making.

Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

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Author by : Paul K. Davis
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 171
Isbn : 9780833085078
Identifier : 0833085077
Release : 2014-03-01
Publisher by : Rand Corporation
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Analysis To Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity by Paul K. Davis and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. defense analysis can do a better job supporting policymakers dealing with multiple objectives and deep uncertainties. this will involve seeing through the fog with simple analysis and undergirding results with depth as necessary. it will emphasize balancing across objectives and hedging against both uncertainty and disagreement among policymakers. modern methods for doing so are available but they require displacing some familiar processes and demanding more from analysis. once decisions are made, analysis should help policymakers explain, convince, and shape implementation guidance with sharpened requirements, forcing functions, and metrics for monitoring, feedback, and adaptation.

Content Analysis An Introduction to Its Methodology

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Author by : Klaus Krippendorff
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 413
Isbn : 9780761915454
Identifier : 0761915451
Release : 2004
Publisher by : SAGE
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
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Description : Read Now Content Analysis by Klaus Krippendorff and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. since the publication of the first edition of content analysis: an introduction to its methodology, the textual fabric in which contemporary society functions has undergone a radical transformation -- namely, the ongoing information revolution. two decades ago, content analysis was largely known in journalism and communication research, and, to a lesser extent, in the social and psychological sciences. today, content analysis has become an efficient alternative to public opinion research -- a method of tracking markets, political leanings, and emerging ideas, a way to settle legal disputes, and an approach to explore individual human minds. the second edition of content analysis is a definitive sourcebook of the history and core principles of content analysis as well as an essential resource for present and future studies. the book introduces readers to ways of analyzing meaningful matter such as texts, images, voices -- that is, data whose physical manifestations are secondary to the meanings that a particular population of people brings to them.organized into three parts, the book examines the conceptual and methodological aspects of content analysis and also traces several paths through content analysis protocols.the author has completely revised and updated the second edition, integrating new information on computer-aided text analysis. the book also includes a practical guide that incorporates experiences in teaching and how to advise academic and commercial researchers. in addition, krippendorff clarifies the epistemology and logic of content analysis as well as the methods for achieving its aims. author klaus krippendorff discusses three distinguishing characteristics of contemporary content analysis: that it is fundamentally empirically grounded, exploratory in process, and predictive or inferential in intent; that it transcends traditional notions of symbols, contents, and intents; and that it has been forced to develop a methodology of its own, one that enables researchers to plan, execute, communicate, reproduce, and critically evaluate an analysis independent of the desirability of its results.intended as a textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students across the social sciences, content analysis, second edition will also be a valuable resource for practitioners in a variety of disciplines.