Exploratory Modeling And Analysis A Promising Method To Deal With Deep Uncertainty

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Exploratory Modeling and Analysis A Promising Method to Deal with Deep Uncertainty

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Author by : Buyung Agusdinata
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 286
Isbn :
Identifier : NWU:35556038314159
Release : 2008
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Decision making
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Public Policy Analysis New Developments

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Author by : Wil A. H. Thissen
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 286
Isbn : 1461446023
Identifier : 9781461446026
Release : 2012-10-05
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Social Science
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Description : Read Now Public Policy Analysis by Wil A. H. Thissen and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. traditional policy analysis approaches are characterized by a focus on system modeling and choosing among policy alternatives. while successful in many cases, this approach has been increasingly criticized for being technocratic and ignoring the behavioral and political dimensions of most policy processes. in recent decades, increased awareness of the multi-actor, multiple perspective, and poly-centric character of many policy processes has led to the development of a variety of different perspectives on the styles and roles of policy analysis, and to new analytical tools and approaches – for example, argumentative approaches, participative policy analysis, and negotiation support. as a result, the field has become multi-faceted and somewhat fragmented. public policy analysis: new developments acknowledges the variety of approaches and provides a synthesis of the traditional and new approaches to policy analysis. it provides an overview and typology of different types of policy analytic activities, characterizing them according to differences in character and leading values, and linking them to a variety of theoretical notions on policymaking. thereby, it provides assistance to both end users and analysts in choosing an appropriate approach given a specific policy situation. by broadening the traditional approach and methods to include the analysis of actors and actor networks related to the policy issue at hand, it deepens the state of the art in certain areas. while the main focus of the book is on the cognitive dimensions of policy analysis, it also links the policy analysis process to the policymaking process, showing how to identify and involve all relevant stakeholders in the process, and how to create favorable conditions for use of the results of policy analytic efforts by the policy actors. the book has as its major objective to describe the state-of-the-art and the latest developments in ex-ante policy analysis. it is divided into two parts. part i explores and structures policy analysis developments, the development and description of approaches to diagnose policy situations, design policy analytic efforts, and policy process conditions. part ii focuses on recent developments regarding models and modeling for policy analysis, placing modeling approaches in the context of the variety of conditions and approaches elaborated in part i.

System of System Failures

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Author by : Takafumi Nakamura
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 124
Isbn : 1789230462
Identifier : 9781789230468
Release : 2018-05-09
Publisher by : BoD – Books on Demand
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now System Of System Failures by Takafumi Nakamura and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book provides the application of praxises in the field of engineering safety by learning from previous system failures. and it addresses the most recent developments in the theoretical and practical aspects of these important fields, which, due to their special nature, bring together in a systematic way, many disciplines of engineering, from the traditional to the most technologically advanced. the authors of these chapters are involved in using the system thinking and system engineering approaches at the scale of increased complexity and advanced computational solutions to such systems. the chapters cover the areas such as failure assessment in aeronautical engineering, seismic resistance of offshore pipeline engineering, electrical engineering, critical infrastructure failure, and system of system theory.

Contemporary Issues in Systems Science and Engineering

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Author by : MengChu Zhou
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 888
Isbn : 1118271866
Identifier : 9781118271865
Release : 2015-04-20
Publisher by : John Wiley & Sons
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now Contemporary Issues In Systems Science And Engineering by MengChu Zhou and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. "this represents the most comprehensive systems engineering book, allowing systems engineers to evaluate increasingly complex problems and challenges through actual discrete events in order to reach the most effective solution. with world renowned systems engineers contributing, the book features 27 chapters, each on a different discrete event, with accompanying discussions and conclusions. the topics range from discrete event systems, distributed intelligent systems, grey systems, and enterprise information systems, to conflict resolution, robotics and intelligent sensing, systems biology, and system of systems approaches"--

Complex Systems Design & Management Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Complex Systems Design & Management CSDM 2011

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Author by : Omar Hammami
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 360
Isbn : 3642252036
Identifier : 9783642252037
Release : 2012-01-12
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Technology & Engineering
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Description : Read Now Complex Systems Design Management by Omar Hammami and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book contains all refereed papers that were accepted to the second edition of the « complex systems design & management » (csdm 2011) international conference that took place in paris (france) from december 7 to december 9, 2011. (website: http://www.csdm2011.csdm.fr/). these proceedings cover the most recent trends in the emerging field of complex systems sciences & practices from an industrial and academic perspective, including the main industrial domains (transport, defense & security, electronics, energy & environment, e-services), scientific & technical topics (systems fundamentals, systems architecture& engineering, systems metrics & quality, systemic tools) and system types (transportation systems, embedded systems, software & information systems, systems of systems, artificial ecosystems). the csdm 2011 conference is organized under the guidance of the cesames non-profit organization (http://www.cesames.net/).

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science Centennial Edition

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Author by : Saul I. Gass
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 917
Isbn : 079237827X
Identifier : 9780792378273
Release : 2001
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Computers
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Description : Read Now Encyclopedia Of Operations Research And Management Science by Saul I. Gass and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. audience: anyone concerned with the science, techniques and ideas of how decisions are made."--book jacket.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

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Author by : Vincent Albert Willem Julia Marchau
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 405
Isbn : 3030052524
Identifier : 9783030052522
Release : 2019-01-01
Publisher by : Springer
Category : Differentiable dynamical systems
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Description : Read Now Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent Albert Willem Julia Marchau and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. it explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. the book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. it also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. the book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. for decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. decision making under deep uncertainty: from theory to practice is divided into four parts. part i presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: robust decision making, dynamic adaptive planning, dynamic adaptive policy pathways, info-gap decision theory, and engineering options analysis. each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. in part ii, applications of each of these approaches are presented. based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. part iii focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. part iv contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

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Author by : Robert J. Lempert
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 208
Isbn : 0833034855
Identifier : 9780833034854
Release : 2003-07-18
Publisher by : Rand Corporation
Category : Transportation
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Description : Read Now Shaping The Next One Hundred Years by Robert J. Lempert and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. a sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. the checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the limits to growth study to claims about the "new economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. however, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. new analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. this report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. the authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (ltpa). robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. reframing the question "what will the long-term future bring?" as "how can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world ltpa and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

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Author by : Paul K. Davis
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 77
Isbn : 0833040391
Identifier : 9780833040398
Release : 2007
Publisher by : Rand Corporation
Category : Business & Economics
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Description : Read Now Theory And Methods For Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking by Paul K. Davis and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this report describes an approach to high-level decision support that deals explicitly with uncertainty in effects-based operations or planning future forces with the methods of capabilities-based planning. two approaches are described, one using portfolio-style thinking and analysis, the other a novel modification of foresight exercises that addresses inclusion of humans in dealing with uncertainty. some investment priorities are also recommended.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles in the Climate System

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Author by : Ernst-Detlef Schulze
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 350
Isbn : 9780080507408
Identifier : 0080507409
Release : 2001-08-10
Publisher by : Elsevier
Category : Science
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Description : Read Now Global Biogeochemical Cycles In The Climate System by Ernst-Detlef Schulze and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. the interactions of biogeochemical cycles influence and maintain our climate system. land use and fossil fuel emissions are currently impacting the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen and sulfur on land, in the atmosphere, and in the oceans. this edited volume brings together 27 scholarly contributions on the state of our knowledge of earth system interactions among the oceans, land, and atmosphere. a unique feature of this treatment is the focus on the paleoclimatic and paleobiotic context for investigating these complex interrelationships. * eight-page colour insert to highlight the latest research * a unique feature of this treatment is the focus on the paleoclimatic context for investigating these complex interrelationships.

Future-Oriented Technology Analysis Strategic Intelligence for an Innovative Economy

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Author by : Cristiano Cagnin
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 170
Isbn : 3540688110
Identifier : 9783540688112
Release : 2008-07-29
Publisher by : Springer Science & Business Media
Category : Science
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Description : Read Now Future Oriented Technology Analysis by Cristiano Cagnin and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. the application of foresight to address the challenges of uncertainty and rapid change has grown dramatically in the past decade. in that period, the techniques have been greatly refined and the scope has been broadened to encompass future-oriented technology analysis (fta) and more recently, the concept and practice of strategic intelligence. fta addresses directly the longer-term future through the active and continuous development of visions, and pathways to realise these visions. it is increasingly seen as a valuable management and policy tool complementing, and extending further into the future, classical strategy, planning, and decision-making approaches. this book charts the development of fta and provides the first coherent description and analysis of its practical application and impact in the worlds of business, government, education and research in both advanced and developing countries. it draws on papers addressing the application of fta around the globe which were presented at the second international seville seminar in september 2006. the insights and practical experience will be invaluable for company managers, government ministers and officials, researchers and academics with responsibilities for effective planning and decision-making in an increasingly turbulent and unpredictable world.

Individual-based Modeling and Ecology

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Author by : Volker Grimm
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 428
Isbn : 9780691096667
Identifier : 069109666X
Release : 2005-07-25
Publisher by : Princeton University Press
Category : Computers
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Description : Read Now Individual Based Modeling And Ecology by Volker Grimm and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. individual-based models are an exciting and widely used new tool for ecology. these computational models allow scientists to explore the mechanisms through which population and ecosystem ecology arises from how individuals interact with each other and their environment. this book provides the first in-depth treatment of individual-based modeling and its use to develop theoretical understanding of how ecological systems work, an approach the authors call "individual-based ecology.? grimm and railsback start with a general primer on modeling: how to design models that are as simple as possible while still allowing specific problems to be solved, and how to move efficiently through a cycle of pattern-oriented model design, implementation, and analysis. next, they address the problems of theory and conceptual framework for individual-based ecology: what is "theory"? that is, how do we develop reusable models of how system dynamics arise from characteristics of individuals? what conceptual framework do we use when the classical differential equation framework no longer applies? an extensive review illustrates the ecological problems that have been addressed with individual-based models. the authors then identify how the mechanics of building and using individual-based models differ from those of traditional science, and provide guidance on formulating, programming, and analyzing models. this book will be helpful to ecologists interested in modeling, and to other scientists interested in agent-based modeling.