Reckoning With Risk

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Reckoning with Risk Learning to Live with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 320
Isbn : 0140297863
Identifier : 9780140297867
Release : 2003-04-24
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Mathematics
Total Download : 9536932
Total Read : 8854978
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Description : Read Now Reckoning With Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. are ordinary people able to reason with risk? detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. in so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Reckoning with Risk Learning to Live with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 320
Isbn : 0141933089
Identifier : 9780141933085
Release : 2003-04-24
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Mathematics
Total Download : 8568204
Total Read : 4370341
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Description : Read Now Reckoning With Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. "this is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. by the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medicalchoices should read it" - new scientist however much we crave certainty, we live in an uncertain world. but are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? are ordinary people idiots when reasoning with risk? far too many of us, argues gerd gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy. here, he shows us that our difficulties in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome.

Reckoning with Risk Learning to Live with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 310
Isbn : 9780713995121
Identifier : 0713995122
Release : 2002
Publisher by :
Category : Decision making
Total Download : 4931567
Total Read : 531147
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Description : Read Now Reckoning With Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. in the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, h.g. wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. yet, a century on, most of us, from tv weather forecasters to the american president, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties.

Risk Savvy How To Make Good Decisions

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 336
Isbn : 0141970111
Identifier : 9780141970110
Release : 2014-04-17
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Self-Help
Total Download : 4814085
Total Read : 3342119
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Description : Read Now Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. a fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from gerd gigerenzer, the author of reckoning with risk. risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. but what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? how do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? this entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. gerd gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. he shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives. 'gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' steven pinker 'catchily optimistic and slyly funny' guardian gerd gigerenzer is director of the center for adaptive behavior and cognition at the max planck institute for human development in berlin and former professor of psychology at the university of chicago. he is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including reckoning with risk.

Calculated Risks How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 310
Isbn : 0743254236
Identifier : 9780743254236
Release : 2002
Publisher by : Simon and Schuster
Category : Education
Total Download : 2723445
Total Read : 3053121
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Description : Read Now Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. at the beginning of the twentieth century, h. g. wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. but in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. cognitive scientist gerd gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. in order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. the actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. but nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. many of us believe that hiv tests, dna fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. but even dna evidence can produce spurious matches. we cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. to avoid confusion, says gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. for example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. but in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. a 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. this eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Hedge Hunters Hedge Fund Masters on the Rewards, the Risk, and the Reckoning

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Author by : Katherine Burton
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 206
Isbn : 9780470885185
Identifier : 0470885181
Release : 2010-06-04
Publisher by : John Wiley and Sons
Category : Business & Economics
Total Download : 7299557
Total Read : 456013
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Description : Read Now Hedge Hunters by Katherine Burton and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. one of amazon.com's best books of 2007 top 10 editor's picks: finance and investing the hedge fund industry's top managers have a penchant for high returns and low profiles. the combination makes them a regular focus of the media, eager to know what makes them tick. now, thanks to katherine burton, who's been covering these noteworthy traders for bloomberg news for more than a decade, we know considerably more about them. with candor and detail, the industry's most successful hedge fund managers describe the events that shaped their personal journeys, the strategies they use to produce returns even in uncooperative markets, and the attributes that make a smart investor. hedge hunters offers a rare look at the industry's top performers and an introduction to some of the most talented new managers, handpicked by the masters themselves.

Rationality for Mortals How People Cope with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 256
Isbn : 0199890129
Identifier : 9780199890125
Release : 2010-04-16
Publisher by : Oxford University Press
Category : Philosophy
Total Download : 409081
Total Read : 9693064
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Description : Read Now Rationality For Mortals by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. gerd gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. this work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. this volume (which follows on a previous collection, adaptive thinking, also published by oup) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. it includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. this volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

Modeling Bounded Rationality

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Author by : Ariel Rubinstein, Carl-johann Dalgaard
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 208
Isbn : 9780262681001
Identifier : 0262681005
Release : 1998
Publisher by : MIT Press
Category : Psychology
Total Download : 1240968
Total Read : 6817905
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Description : Read Now Modeling Bounded Rationality by Ariel Rubinstein, Carl-johann Dalgaard and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. the notion of bounded rationality was initiated in the 1950s by herbert simon; only recently has it influenced mainstream economics. in this book, ariel rubinstein defines models of bounded rationality as those in which elements of the process of choice are explicitly embedded. the book focuses on the challenges of modeling bounded rationality, rather than on substantial economic implications. in the first part of the book, the author considers the modeling of choice. after discussing some psychological findings, he proceeds to the modeling of procedural rationality, knowledge, memory, the choice of what to know, and group decisions.in the second part, he discusses the fundamental difficulties of modeling bounded rationality in games. he begins with the modeling of a game with procedural rational players and then surveys repeated games with complexity considerations. he ends with a discussion of computability constraints in games. the final chapter includes a critique by herbert simon of the author's methodology and the author's response. the zeuthen lecture book series is sponsored by the institute of economics at the university of copenhagen.

Risk Intelligence How to Live with Uncertainty

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Author by : Dylan Evans
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 288
Isbn : 1451610920
Identifier : 9781451610925
Release : 2012-04-17
Publisher by : Simon and Schuster
Category : Psychology
Total Download : 3835100
Total Read : 5172799
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Description : Read Now Risk Intelligence by Dylan Evans and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. we must make judgments all the time when we can’t be certain of the risks. should we have that elective surgery? trust the advice of our financial adviser? take that new job we’ve been offered? how worried should we be about terrorist attacks? in this lively and groundbreaking book, pioneering researcher dylan evans introduces a newly discovered kind of intelligence for assessing risks, demonstrating how vital this risk intelligence is in our lives and how we can all raise our rqs in order to make better decisions every day. evans has spearheaded the study of risk intelligence, devising a simple test to measure a person’s rq which when posted online sparked a storm of interest and was taken by tens of thousands of people. his research has revealed that risk intelligence is quite different from iq, and that the vast majority of us have quite poor risk intelligence. however, he did find some people who have very high rqs. so what makes the difference? introducing a wealth of fascinating research findings, evans identifies a key set of common errors in our thinking that most of us fall victim to and that undermine our risk intelligence, such as “ambiguity aversion,” overconfidence in our knowledge, the fallacy of mind reading, and our attraction to worst-case scenarios. we are also regularly led astray by the ways in which information is provided to us. citing a wide range of real-life examples— from the brilliant risk assessment skills of horse race handicappers to the tragically flawed evaluations of risk that caused the financial crisis—evans illustrates that sometimes our most trusted advisers, including the experts and analysts at the top of their disciplines, don’t always give us the best advice when it comes to risk evaluation. presenting his revolutionary test that allows readers to evaluate their own rqs, evans introduces a number of simple techniques we can use to build our risk assessment powers and reports on the striking results he’s seen in training people to develop their rqs. both highly engaging and truly mind-changing, risk intelligence will fascinate all of those who are interested in how we can improve our thinking in order to enhance our lives.

Essential Decision Making and Clinical Judgement for Nurses E-Book

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Author by : Carl Thompson, Dawn Dowding
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 288
Isbn : 0702042528
Identifier : 9780702042522
Release : 2009-07-17
Publisher by : Elsevier Health Sciences
Category : Medical
Total Download : 3628967
Total Read : 2233857
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Description : Read Now Essential Decision Making And Clinical Judgement For Nurses E Book by Carl Thompson, Dawn Dowding and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book provides the skills and knowledge to use information effectively when exercising professional judgement and clinical decisions. by integrating theory with practical examples, it provides an overview of the key issues facing nurses in decision making today. review of up-to-date research into clinical professional judgement and decision making focus on evidence and skills and knowledge relevant to nursing practice combines current theory with analysis of applications in practice learning exercises and self-assessment components in each chapter comprehensive coverage of subject

This Close to Happy A Reckoning with Depression

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Author by : Daphne Merkin
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 304
Isbn : 9781250159298
Identifier : 1250159296
Release : 2018-02-06
Publisher by : Picador
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Total Download : 1367040
Total Read : 7328304
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Description : Read Now This Close To Happy by Daphne Merkin and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account.

Clinician's Guide to Violence Risk Assessment

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Author by : Jeremy F. Mills, Daryl G. Kroner, Robert D. Morgan
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 242
Isbn : 1606239856
Identifier : 9781606239858
Release : 2011-02-14
Publisher by : Guilford Press
Category : Psychology
Total Download : 6856667
Total Read : 6717313
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Description : Read Now Clinician S Guide To Violence Risk Assessment by Jeremy F. Mills, Daryl G. Kroner, Robert D. Morgan and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. presenting a comprehensive framework for conducting a scientifically grounded violence risk assessment, this book is authoritative, current, and practical. the essentials of doing this type of evaluation are reviewed, and available risk appraisal instruments are described for general violence, sexual violence, and spousal violence. the authors provide expert advice on choosing suitable instruments and approaches for particular cases, interpreting the resulting data, and communicating with legal decision makers. a detailed outline shows how to organize assessment findings into an effective final report; a sample completed report is featured in the appendix.

The Reckoning Financial Accountability and the Rise and Fall of Nations

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Author by : Jacob Soll
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 312
Isbn : 0465036635
Identifier : 9780465036639
Release : 2014-04-29
Publisher by : Basic Books
Category : History
Total Download : 8265368
Total Read : 5465115
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Description : Read Now The Reckoning by Jacob Soll and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. for centuries, the importance of financial accounting has been well understood. essential to building businesses, states, and even empires, accounting has also helped leaders measure their power and craft their policies. when practiced poorly or neglected, accounting has contributed to cycles of destruction, as the 2008 financial crisis has made all too clear. in the reckoning, award-winning historian jacob soll shows how the use and misuse of financial bookkeeping has determined the fate of entire societies. in the right hands, accounting has created social stability, good governance, and economic prosperity. in the wrong hands, good accounting practices have often been subverted, with disastrous results ranging from financial losses and debt to complete economic collapse. from the medici bankers to the director of finances under louis xvi, from the industrial revolution to the stock market crash of 1929 and the great recession, the reckoning demonstrates that civilizations are only as strong as their bookkeepers.

House Reckoning

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Author by : Michael Lawson, Mike Lawson
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 295
Isbn : 0802122531
Identifier : 9780802122537
Release : 2014
Publisher by : Grove Press
Category : Fiction
Total Download : 7149901
Total Read : 4154963
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Description : Read Now House Reckoning by Michael Lawson, Mike Lawson and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. twenty years after demarco's father was murdered, a former mob associate, on his deathbed succumbing to cancer, wants to make a confession about the killer in the continuation of the series following house blood.

Rising Strong How the Ability to Reset Transforms the Way We Live, Love, Parent, and Lead

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Author by : Brené Brown
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 352
Isbn : 081299583X
Identifier : 9780812995831
Release : 2015-08-25
Publisher by : Spiegel & Grau
Category : Self-Help
Total Download : 1067533
Total Read : 6611758
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Description : Read Now Rising Strong by Brené Brown and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. #1 new york times bestseller • when we deny our stories, they define us. when we own our stories, we get to write the ending. social scientist brené brown has ignited a global conversation on courage, vulnerability, shame, and worthiness. her pioneering work uncovered a profound truth: vulnerability—the willingness to show up and be seen with no guarantee of outcome—is the only path to more love, belonging, creativity, and joy. but living a brave life is not always easy: we are, inevitably, going to stumble and fall. it is the rise from falling that brown takes as her subject in rising strong. as a grounded theory researcher, brown has listened as a range of people—from leaders in fortune 500 companies and the military to artists, couples in long-term relationships, teachers, and parents—shared their stories of being brave, falling, and getting back up. she asked herself, what do these people with strong and loving relationships, leaders nurturing creativity, artists pushing innovation, and clergy walking with people through faith and mystery have in common? the answer was clear: they recognize the power of emotion and they’re not afraid to lean in to discomfort. walking into our stories of hurt can feel dangerous. but the process of regaining our footing in the midst of struggle is where our courage is tested and our values are forged. our stories of struggle can be big ones, like the loss of a job or the end of a relationship, or smaller ones, like a conflict with a friend or colleague. regardless of magnitude or circumstance, the rising strong process is the same: we reckon with our emotions and get curious about what we’re feeling; we rumble with our stories until we get to a place of truth; and we live this process, every day, until it becomes a practice and creates nothing short of a revolution in our lives. rising strong after a fall is how we cultivate wholeheartedness. it’s the process, brown writes, that teaches us the most about who we are. one of greater good’s favorite books of the year praise for rising strong “[brené brown’s] research and work have given us a new vocabulary, a way to talk with each other about the ideas and feelings and fears we’ve all had but haven’t quite known how to articulate. . . . brené empowers us each to be a little more courageous.”—the huffington post “with a fresh perspective that marries research and humor, brown offers compassion while delivering thought-provoking ideas about relationships—with others and with oneself.”—publishers weekly “it is inevitable—we will fall. we will fail. we will not know how to react or what to do. no matter how or when it happens, we will all have a choice—do we get up or not? thankfully, brené brown is there with an outstretched arm to help us up.”—simon sinek, author of start with why and leaders eat last

Gut Feelings Short Cuts to Better Decision Making

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 288
Isbn : 0141015918
Identifier : 9780141015910
Release : 2008-08-09
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Psychology
Total Download : 3433367
Total Read : 2150098
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Description : Read Now Gut Feelings by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. think less � and know more. a sportsman can catch a ball without calculating its speed or distance. a group of amateurs beat the experts at playing the stock market. a man falls for the right woman even though she�s �wrong� on paper. all these people succeeded by trusting their instincts � but how does it work? in gut feelings psychologist and behavioural expert gerd gigerenzer reveals the secrets of fast and effective decision-making. he explains that, in an uncertain world, sometimes we have to ignore too much information and rely on our brain�s �short cut�, or heuristic. by explaining how intuition works and analyzing the techniques that people use to make good decisions � whether it�s in personnel selection or heart surgery � gigerenzer will show you why gut thinking can change your world.