Reckoning With Risk

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Reckoning with Risk Learning to Live with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 320
Isbn : 0140297863
Identifier : 9780140297867
Release : 2003-04-24
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Mathematics
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Description : Read Now Reckoning With Risk by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. are ordinary people able to reason with risk? detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. in so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Risk Savvy How To Make Good Decisions

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 336
Isbn : 0141970111
Identifier : 9780141970110
Release : 2014-04-17
Publisher by : Penguin UK
Category : Self-Help
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Description : Read Now Risk Savvy by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. a fascinating, practical guide to making better decisions with our money, health and personal lives from gerd gigerenzer, the author of reckoning with risk. risk-taking is essential for innovation, fun, and the courage to face the uncertainties in life. yet for many important decisions, we're often presented with statistics and probabilities that we don't really understand and we inevitably rely on experts in the relevant fields - policy makers, financial advisors, doctors - to analyse and choose for us. but what if they don't quite understand the way the information is presented either? how do we make sure we're asking doctors the right questions about proposed treatment? is there a rule of thumb that could help choose the right partner? this entertaining book shows us how to recognize when we don't have all the information and know what to do about it. gerd gigerenzer looks at examples from every aspect of life to identify the reasons for our collective misunderstanding of the risks we face. he shows how we can all use simple rules to avoid being manipulated into unrealistic fears or hopes, to make better-informed decisions, and to learn to understand risk and uncertainty in our own lives. 'gigerenzer is brilliant and his topic is fabulous' steven pinker 'catchily optimistic and slyly funny' guardian gerd gigerenzer is director of the center for adaptive behavior and cognition at the max planck institute for human development in berlin and former professor of psychology at the university of chicago. he is the author of several books on heuristics and decision making, including reckoning with risk.

Calculated Risks How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 310
Isbn : 0743254236
Identifier : 9780743254236
Release : 2002
Publisher by : Simon and Schuster
Category : Education
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Description : Read Now Calculated Risks by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. at the beginning of the twentieth century, h. g. wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. but in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. cognitive scientist gerd gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. in order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. the actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. but nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. many of us believe that hiv tests, dna fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. but even dna evidence can produce spurious matches. we cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. to avoid confusion, says gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. for example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. but in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. a 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. this eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Essential Decision Making and Clinical Judgement for Nurses E-Book

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Author by : Carl Thompson
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 288
Isbn : 0702042528
Identifier : 9780702042522
Release : 2009-07-17
Publisher by : Elsevier Health Sciences
Category : Medical
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Description : Read Now Essential Decision Making And Clinical Judgement For Nurses E Book by Carl Thompson and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. this book provides the skills and knowledge to use information effectively when exercising professional judgement and clinical decisions. by integrating theory with practical examples, it provides an overview of the key issues facing nurses in decision making today. review of up-to-date research into clinical professional judgement and decision making focus on evidence and skills and knowledge relevant to nursing practice combines current theory with analysis of applications in practice learning exercises and self-assessment components in each chapter comprehensive coverage of subject

The Gentleman's and London Magazine Or Monthly Chronologer, 1741-1794

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Author by : no defined
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn :
Identifier : NYPL:33433115511614
Release : 1741
Publisher by : no defined
Category :
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The London Magazine, and Monthly Chronologer

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Author by : no defined
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn :
Identifier : HARVARD:HXUES5
Release : 1744
Publisher by : no defined
Category : English essays
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Kinship by Design A History of Adoption in the Modern United States

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Author by : Ellen Herman
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 368
Isbn : 0226328074
Identifier : 9780226328072
Release : 2009-08-01
Publisher by : University of Chicago Press
Category : Social Science
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Description : Read Now Kinship By Design by Ellen Herman and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. what constitutes a family? tracing the dramatic evolution of americans’ answer to this question over the past century, kinship by design provides the fullest account to date of modern adoption’s history. beginning in the early 1900s, when children were still transferred between households by a variety of unregulated private arrangements, ellen herman details efforts by the u.s. children’s bureau and the child welfare league of america to establish adoption standards in law and practice. she goes on to trace americans’ shifting ideas about matching children with physically or intellectually similar parents, revealing how research in developmental science and technology shaped adoption as it navigated the nature-nurture debate. concluding with an insightful analysis of the revolution that ushered in special needs, transracial, and international adoptions, kinship by design ultimately situates the practice as both a different way to make a family and a universal story about love, loss, identity, and belonging. in doing so, this volume provides a new vantage point from which to view twentieth-century america, revealing as much about social welfare, statecraft, and science as it does about childhood, family, and private life.

Rationality for Mortals How People Cope with Uncertainty

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Author by : Gerd Gigerenzer
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 256
Isbn : 0199890129
Identifier : 9780199890125
Release : 2010-04-16
Publisher by : Oxford University Press
Category : Philosophy
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Description : Read Now Rationality For Mortals by Gerd Gigerenzer and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. gerd gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. this work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. this volume (which follows on a previous collection, adaptive thinking, also published by oup) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. it includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. this volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

The Self Illusion How the Social Brain Creates Identity

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Author by : Bruce Hood
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 368
Isbn : 0199969892
Identifier : 9780199969890
Release : 2012-06-15
Publisher by : Oxford University Press
Category : Psychology
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Description : Read Now The Self Illusion by Bruce Hood and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. most of us believe that we are unique and coherent individuals, but are we? the idea of a "self" has existed ever since humans began to live in groups and become sociable. those who embrace the self as an individual in the west, or a member of the group in the east, feel fulfilled and purposeful. this experience seems incredibly real but a wealth of recent scientific evidence reveals that this notion of the independent, coherent self is an illusion - it is not what it seems. reality as we perceive it is not something that objectively exists, but something that our brains construct from moment to moment, interpreting, summarizing, and substituting information along the way. like a science fiction movie, we are living in a matrix that is our mind. in the self illusion, dr. bruce hood reveals how the self emerges during childhood and how the architecture of the developing brain enables us to become social animals dependent on each other. he explains that self is the product of our relationships and interactions with others, and it exists only in our brains. the author argues, however, that though the self is an illusion, it is one that humans cannot live without. but things are changing as our technology develops and shapes society. the social bonds and relationships that used to take time and effort to form are now undergoing a revolution as we start to put our self online. social networking activities such as blogging, facebook, linkedin and twitter threaten to change the way we behave. social networking is fast becoming socialization on steroids. the speed and ease at which we can form alliances and relationships is outstripping the same selection processes that shaped our self prior to the internet era. this book ventures into unchartered territory to explain how the idea of the self will never be the same again in the online social world.

Evidence-Based Practice Manual for Nurses - E-Book

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Author by : Jean V. Craig
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 398
Isbn : 070204668X
Identifier : 9780702046681
Release : 2011-08-11
Publisher by : Elsevier Health Sciences
Category : Medical
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Description : Read Now Evidence Based Practice Manual For Nurses E Book by Jean V. Craig and you can download with pub, pdf, txt, doc, and more file format with free account. the evidence-based practice manual successfully breaks down the skills for evidence-based nursing into manageable components. the reader will learn how to find, critically read and interpret a range of research studies, and will discover optimal approaches to helping patients reach decisions that are informed by the best-available evidence. the more-strategic concepts of developing an organisational evidence-based culture and making evidence-based changes at organisational level are the focus of the final section. step-by-step guide to finding, appraising and applying research evidence in nursing teaches skills for successfully reviewing published literature: formulating a focused question developing a search strategy for efficient retrieval of relevant studies appraising the retrieved studies all examples are relevant to nurses and nursing reflects contemporary nursing issues a new chapter on ‘using research evidence in making clinical decisions with the individual patient’ provides practical guidance and tools for decision-making a new chapter on ‘using evidence from qualitative studies’ explains the complexities of qualitative methodologies and methods in a simple, easily understood way online exercises and solutions help the reader test out and consolidate newly acquired skills and knowledge provide an opportunity to critically appraise studies with the following range of designs: qualitative research a randomised controlled trial a cohort study a case control study a diagnostic test accuracy study a systematic review a clinical guideline example solutions are provided, all written by experts in the field.

Cobbett's Parliamentary History of England 1741-1743

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Author by : Great Britain. Parliament
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 233
Isbn :
Identifier : PRNC:32101077909974
Release : 1812
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Great Britain
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Cobbett's Parliamentary History of England From the Norman Conquest, in 1066 to the Year 1803. AD 1741 - 1743

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Author by : William Cobbett
Languange Used : English, France, Spanish, Italia and chinese
Page : 16
Isbn :
Identifier : BSB:BSB10279120
Release : 1812
Publisher by : no defined
Category : Great Britain
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